The new budget has unveiled significant opportunities for the Indian economy, with a prime focus on job creation, agriculture, and infrastructure investment set to propel the next phase of India’s growth momentum.
India stands poised to capitalise on these developments. However, new tangents of growth are yet to be tapped. The second quarter of 2024-25 has begun with signs of quickening momentum in the economy. The improvement in the outlook for agriculture & revival in rural spending have turned out to be the bright spots, in the evolution of demand conditions. How will these factors propel the economy, and what current data supports this positive outlook?
Indian Macroeconomy
Economic Growth Outlook: India's economy demonstrated robust growth in the latter part of FY24, with real GDP increasing by 7.8% year-on-year (YoY) in Q4, leading to an annual growth rate of 8.2% for FY24, surpassing global expectations. However, this exceptional growth is anticipated to moderate in the coming financial years due to the diminishing impact of the unique factors that boosted the economy in FY24. For FY25, real GDP growth is projected to fall between 6.0% and 6.5%, with a similar forecast for FY26. Despite this slowdown, nominal GDP growth is expected to strengthen to 10.8% in FY25 and slightly decrease to 10.1% in FY26.
Economic Activity Indicators: A closer examination of the macroeconomic indicators reveals stability in private consumption expenditure, which remains around 60% of GDP, while government consumption expenditure is set to decline moderately. Gross capital formation is anticipated to make incremental gains, reaching 33.6% of GDP by FY26. Contrary to these positive indicators, exports and imports are expected to gradually reduce as a percentage of GDP over the next two years.
However, the Economic Activity Index (EAI) estimates indicate a slowdown in real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth to a 19-month low of 6.3% YoY in May'24, primarily driven by a slowdown in the services sector. The industrial sector maintained a growth rate of 7.6% YoY, despite slight moderation, while growth in agriculture and allied activities remained subdued at 2.6% YoY. Consequently, the EAI-GDP growth decelerated sharply to 1.7% YoY in May 2024, marking the slowest growth rate in five months, even as investment growth picked up.
Fiscal Outlook: The FY25 budget aims to target a fiscal deficit reduction to 5% of GDP while increasing spending growth to support economic expansion. This balanced approach reflects the government's historical emphasis on fiscal discipline, ensuring fiscal prudence while fostering growth.
Indian Equity
Earnings Outlook 1QFY25 Preview: Financials and Banks are expected to be cornerstone earnings drivers in FY25, with earnings expected to grow by 35% YoY. This surge is attributed to factors such as improved margins, better asset quality, and steady credit growth. The sector's robust health is underscored by balanced portfolios and prudent fiscal management.
Capital Goods sector is forecasted to grow earnings by 24% YoY in 1QFY25. The sector benefits from a robust inquiry pipeline in crucial areas like transmission, data centers, electric vehicles (EVs), railways, semiconductors, and hydrogen. Execution growth is projected at 12% YoY, reflecting ongoing strong demand and sustained investment.
Metal companies are expected to continue their strong performance, with a projected 17% YoY growth in earnings. The sector's growth is fueled by higher commodity prices and increased demand from construction and infrastructure projects.
Consumer discretionary, buoyed by increasing consumer spending and rising per capita incomes. Enhanced earnings projections reflect strong demand for consumer goods and services, driven by a stable macroeconomic environment and supportive government policies.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) Influence: June'24 marked a significant shift, with FIIs turning aggressive buyers, infusing USD 3.1 billion into Indian equities, influenced by multiple global and domestic factors such as the Global Bond Index Inclusion: Indian govt bonds are on the cusp of being included in global bond indices. This anticipated inclusion has spurred foreign portfolio investments in Indian bonds, further enhancing the overall investment sentiment.
Indian Debt
Despite stable long-term domestic economic fundamentals, the Indian bond market has been volatile. This volatility mirrors the global markets, influenced by - Mixed global economic signals, Uncertain central bank policies in developed markets & rising geopolitical tensions.
Near-Term Rate Trajectory: The yield on the 10Yr Indian govt bond (G-Sec) decreased from 7.35% in Oct’23 to 7.00% in Mar’24. Post-March, the yield has been volatile, fluctuating between 6.95% & 7.20%.
Medium to Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term volatility, the medium to long-term trend indicates a softening trajectory for yields (i.e., yields are expected to decrease over time). Therefore, it is prudent to maintain a significant portion of fixed-income investments in longer-duration bonds (both actively and passively managed) to benefit from the anticipated decrease in yields.
Key Risk - Delayed Fiscal Consolidation: A major risk to this outlook is the possibility of a delay in fiscal consolidation (i.e., the government's efforts to reduce its deficit and debt levels).
In summary, the Indian bond market has been experiencing volatility due to global factors and uncertain domestic policies. While the near-term outlook is uncertain & dependent on upcoming government policies, the long-term expectation is for yields to soften. Thus, investors are advised to keep their fixed-income investments tilted towards longer-duration bonds to take advantage of this anticipated trend, while being mindful of the risk of delayed fiscal consolidation.
Path Of the Intelligent Investor
The current equity market outlook is positive, driven by corporate deleveraging, increased Capex, and expected profit growth. However, due to global uncertainties and high valuations, a balanced and resilient approach is suggested .
Investors with appropriate equity allocation should stay invested, while those with lower equity exposure should increase it gradually over 3-6 months investing into large and multi-cap strategies, and 6-12 months for mid and small-cap strategies.
The optimal lumpsum investment strategy is through Multi-Asset and Balanced Advantage funds, with accelerated equity deployment if there is a significant market correction.
The long-term expectation is for yields is to soften. Thus, investors are suggested to keep their fixed-income investments tilted towards longer-duration bonds to take advantage of this anticipated trend.
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